Spatial anatomy of species survival: effects of predation and climate-driven environmental variability

The majority of survival analyses focus on temporal scales. Consequently, there is a limited understanding of how species survival varies over space and, ultimately, how spatial variability in the environment affects the temporal dynamics of species abundance. Using data from the Barents Sea, we study the spatiotemporal variability of the juvenile Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) survival. We develop an index of spatial survival based on changes of juvenile cod distribution through their first winter of life (from age-0 to age-1) and study its variability in relation to biotic and abiotic factors. Over the 25 years analyzed (1980-2004), we found that, once the effect of passive drift due to dominant currents is accounted for, the area where age-0 cod survival was lowest coincided with the area of highest abundance of older cod. Within this critical region, the survival of age-0 cod was negatively affected by its own abundance, by that of older cod, and by bottom depth. Furthermore, during cold years, age-0 cod survival increased in the eastern and coldest portion of the examined area, which was typically avoided by older conspecifics. Based on these results we propose that within the examined area top-down mechanisms and predation-driven density dependence can strongly affect the spatial pattern of age-0 cod survival. Climate-related variables can also influence the spatial survival of age-0 cod by affecting their distribution and that of their predators. Results from these and similar studies, focusing on the spatial variability of survival rates, can be used to characterize species habitat quality of marine renewable resources.     

Local environmental monitoring in Sweden: The need for a new strategy?

This paper discusses the present character of environmental monitoring in Swedish municipalities. We have found that local environmental monitoring in Sweden is insufficient. There is very little connection between monitoring activities and local environmental goals, and environmental goals have been established without considering information from the environmental monitoring. In practice, this means that local environmental monitoring has only a limited influence on political decisions and priorities in the municipalities. Our study also showed that local environmental monitoring was almost entirely focused on monitoring the state of the environment and showed a lack of flow-oriented information. There is a strong need to develop a unified strategy for local environmental monitoring to avoid sub-optimisations in local environmental management. A new strategy would, to a much higher degree, have to focus on monitoring diffuse sources of pollution and personal lifestyles. In this case, monitoring only the state of the environment would not be sufficient. It would have to include also the flows of materials through society, i.e. the whole metabolism of society, including biogeochemical as well as anthropogenic material flows.     

应对不确定性:呼吁建立新的科学政策论坛

科学界和政策界具有不同的目标,这就自然导致了对构成某种变化或现象的"检验"标准的差异,以及用不同的方法去描述不确定性和风险的持性及传达不确定性和风险.这些差异可能损害科学家、决策者和公众之间的有效沟通,同时也限制了科学家所愿意研究的社会紧迫问题的类型.本文主要回顾了一系列处理不确定性问题的方法,阐述了当科学和政策不能很好协调时所可能引起的一些错误.并在此基础上,特别针对解决不确定性问题提出了一些具体建议,包括重构科学规范,建立由科学、政策两方面领导广泛参加的科学政策论坛.     

Coping with uncertainty: a call for a new science-policy forum

The scientific and policy worlds have different goals, which can lead to different standards for what constitutes "proof" of a change or phenomena, and different approaches for characterizing and conveying uncertainty and risk. These differences can compromise effective communication among scientists, policymakers, and the public, and constrain the types of socially compelling questions scientists are willing to address. In this paper, we review a set of approaches for dealing with uncertainty, and illustrate some of the errors that arise when science and policy fail to coordinate correctly. We offer a set of recommendations, including restructuring of science curricula and establishment of science-policy forums populated by leaders in both arenas, and specifically constituted to address problems of uncertainty.     

Evaluating Participatory Modeling: Developing a Framework for Cross-Case Analysis

Participatory modeling is increasingly recognized as an effective way to assist collective decision-making processes in the domain of natural resource management. This article introduces a framework for evaluating projects that have adopted a participatory modeling approach. This evaluation framework—known as the “Protocol of Canberra”—was developed through a collaboration between French and Australian researchers engaged in participatory modeling and evaluation research. The framework seeks to assess the extent to which different participatory modeling initiatives not only modify perceptions among and interactions between participants, but also contribute to collective decision-making. The article discusses the development of the framework and it’s application to three case-studies, two from Australia and one from the Pacific Island of the Republic of Kiribati. The article concludes with some comments for future use of the framework in a range of participatory modeling contexts.     

Phyt'Eaux Cités: application and validation of a programme to reduce surface water contamination with urban pesticides

This paper presents first results of Phyt’Eaux Cités, a program put in place by the local water supply agency, the SEDIF (Syndicat des Eaux d’Ile-de-France), in collaboration with 73 local authorities, private societies and institutional offices (365 km²). The challenges included: measurement of the previous surface water contamination, control of urban pesticide applications, prevention of pesticide hazard on users and finally a overall reduction of surface water contamination. An inquiry on urban total pesticide amount was coupled with a surface water bi-weekly monitoring to establish the impact of more than 200 molecules upon the Orge River. For 2007, at least 4400 kg and 92 type of pesticides (essentially herbicides) were quantified for all urban users in the Phyt’Eaux Cités perimeter. At the outlet of the Orge River (bi-weekly sampling in 2007), 11 molecules were always detected above 0.1 μg L⁻¹. They displayed the mainly urban origin of pesticide surface water contamination. Amitrole, AMPA (Aminomethyl Phosphonic Acid), demethyldiuron, diuron, glyphosate and atrazine were quantified with a 100% of frequency in 2007 and 2008 at the Orge River outlet. During the year, peaks of contamination were also registered for MCCP, 2,4 MCPA, 2,4 D, triclopyr, dichlorprop, diflufènican, active substances used in large amount in the urban area. However, some other urban molecules, such as isoxaben or flazasulfuron, were detected with low frequency. During late spring and summer, contamination patterns and load were dominated by glyphosate, amitrole and diuron, essentially applied by cities and urban users. Both isoproturon and chlortoluron were quantified during autumn and winter months according to upstream agricultural practices. In conclusion, 3 years after the beginning of this programme, the cities reduced the use of 68% of the total pesticide amount. An improvement on surface water quality was found from 2008 and during 2009 for all pesticides. In particular, glyphosate showed a decrease of the load above 60% in 2008, partly related to the Phyt’Eaux Cités action.     

Genetic Variability in Swayne's Hartebeest, an Endangered Antelope of Ethiopia

Abstract: Swayne's hartebeest ( Alcelaphus buselaphus swaynei ) is an endangered antelope that survives in four or five relict populations in Ethiopia. We examined the two main populations (Senkele and Nechisar) for mitochondrial (D-loop) and nuclear (microsatellite) variability in order to measure levels of genetic variation within the subspecies and degree of differentiation between populations. For comparison, we examined samples from a large population of red hartebeest ( Alcelaphus buselaphus caama ). Both swaynei and caama exhibited high levels of variation. There was significant differentiation between the populations of swaynei at Senkele and Nechisar, and gene diversity in Nechisar, the smaller of the two populations, was significantly lower than that in Senkele. Many mitochondrial haplotypes and microsatellite alleles present at high frequencies among the Senkele individuals were missing in Nechisar, suggesting that the translocation of animals from Senkele undertaken in 1974 did not contribute notably to the gene pool in Nechisar. Subsamples taken from Senkele in 1988 and 1995 showed a significant change in allele frequencies, a change that probably can be attributed to a massive population decline during this period. We recommend that both populations be protected in situ to maintain as much as possible of the diversity that exists within the taxon and that a breeding program be established. In spite of the earlier unsuccessful attempt, we argue that translocation of animals for enhancement of population size as well as genetic variation in Nechisar should be considered.     

The development of a sustainable urban district in Hammarby Sjöstad,Stockholm, Sweden?

By 2012, Hammarby Sjöstad, a former large industrial harbor area in southern Stockholm, Sweden, will be a fully developed residential district containing approximately 11,000 apartments and accommodating 35,000 people. The transformation of the area began in 1996, and the development soon became renowned for its ambitious environmental program, inspired by Agenda 21 (United Nations in Rio declaration on environment and development. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), Rio de Janeiro, 1992) and the Sydney 2000 Olympics in Australia (Newman in Landsc Urban Plan 44:219–226, 1999). Using results based on literature reviews, in-depth interviews, discussions with focus groups, and quantitative data, this paper attempts to gain insight into how the environmental program influenced the planning and performance of the district with regard to sustainable urban development. In doing so, three important conclusions were maintained that could be valuable for similar projects concerning the planning and development of sustainable urban districts. First, the environmental program proved vital to the development process of Hammarby Sjöstad, specifically in its drive to create a sustainable urban district. When planning on improving the sustainability of future districts, such a program should be introduced and integrated earlier in the planning stage of the district. Second, the metabolic flows of Hammarby Sjöstad were reduced as a result of the integrated system—the Hammarby Model—of Hammarby Sjöstad. In order to reduce the metabolic flows in future urban districts even further, it is important to facilitate the integration of technical innovations into existing integrated systems. Third, this case study showed that there was a loss of valid and credible data related to the aims and goals of the environmental program of Hammarby Sjöstad. In future urban districts, it is of the utmost importance to include a clear structure of the assessment process in the environmental program, which would ensure the quality of gathered data and facilitate the development of even better sustainable urban districts in the future.